Iran and the new Japanese head of the IAEAThe election of Yukiya Amano as the new head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was a major news event at the first working day of the new week in Iran. This news was on the front page of almost all of Saturday’s newspapers and for some the top news of the first page accompanied by Amano’s picture. Other news channels, from the state-run TV and radio outlets to non-Iran based and foreign-financed satellite channels, broadcasted their own analysis and evaluation about the news soon after Amano was elected on Friday.
For many news outlets, Amano’s nationality was a significant part of the news. There were news titles like “New IAEA Head Comes from Japan,” “Japanese Amano Replaces ElBaradei," “What Does New UN Nuclear Watchdog’s Japanese Director Think about Iran’s Nuclear Program?,” “ElBaradei’s Successor Comes from Japan,” “Iran’s Nuclear Case: From Arab ElBaradei to Japanese Amano,” and so on. All these articles emphasized the implications of Amano’s nationality in the coming duel between Iran with the West over Tehran’s nuclear program.
The news was analyzed from different points of view. There is a relatively large number of pros and cons, both in Iran and abroad, about this important question of whether or not the election of a Japanese as the new boss of the IAEA favors Iran’s interests.
From a pro-Amano perspective, the success of another Asian diplomat in capturing the helm of an important international organization is regarded as an accomplishment for the entire continent which Iran is part of. This way of thinking emphasizes the point that with a Japanese national as the new director general of the UN nuclear watchdog, Iran’s East-looking foreign policy may be better off in terms of both alliance-making in the region and utilizing the sympathy of Asian nations.
It also could be argued that with the media constantly reminding the world of the tragedy of Hiroshima and Nagasaki committed by the United States at the end of World War II, Iran may be able to elicit sympathy for many influential Japanese, perhaps including Amano.
Amano’s election may be an opportunity for Iran from another perspective as well. There have been many debates in Japan in recent years about whether or not it should go more nuclear. The core of the arguments is that Japan needs nuclearization for its energy needs, but this may be only a red herring to serve the real intention of gaining strength in the face of rising Chinese power. Should Japan decide in the coming years to develop more nuclear power, then Iran may be able to lecture Amano that “charity begins at home,” if he asks Tehran to put a halt to its nuclear ambitions.
Indeed, Iran should be able learn from Japanese foreign policy in past decades. Despite all its bias in favor of the West, Tokyo has nevertheless managed to keep a relatively stable and friendly diplomatic relationship with Tehran over the past thirty years. Not only has Japan played an impartial role in mediating some regional or international problems involving Iran (such as its bloody eight-year war with Iraq during the 1980s), Japanese diplomats have many times acted toward the country differently in private as compared to the noise they sometimes make in public over Iran-related disputes. This story could happen again while Amano chairs the IAEA.
On the other hand, there are some reasons for Iran to feel uneasy about Amano’s future orientation when he deals with the challenges of its nuclear controversy. After all, Amano was not Iran’s choice, nor did it lobby for his win. For obvious reasons, Iran preferred his South African rival, Abdul Samad Minty. In 2006, when the agency finally decided to report the country’s nuclear case to the UN Security Council, South Africa was one of five countries that abstained.
In addition to being part of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) and a developing nation, Iran has long established a special political and economic relationship with South Africa, dating back to the time when it was an enthusiastic supporter of the African National Congress (ANC) during its fight against Apartheid. Such a background made Minty’s candidacy very attractive to Iran; certainly more so than the Amano candidacy.
Upon his appointment as the new head of the UN nuclear watchdog, Yukiya Amano said that there is no hard evidence that Tehran is trying to gain the ability to develop nuclear arms. Such comments are of course a way of showing his good intentions, but this kind of diplomatic gesture often happens when someone has to appease a wide range of countries over controversial matters like Iranian nuclear development.
Iran’s reaction to the first official remark of the incoming head of the IAEA indicates that it is cautious and needs more time to judge him. Iran is concerned that Amano may soon change his attitude. There is no doubt that many people will be watching this Japanese diplomat very closely.
Obama and great expectations in Muslim world
Recent visits and meetings in the Gulf and Egypt reinforce the excitement, hopes, concerns and some cynicism engendered by President Obama's messages to the Muslim world, in particular his Cairo speech. The effects of Obama-mania can be seen at the Sultan Hassan Mosque where Obama's visit to the mosque transformed it into an Egyptian tourist site, often disrupting the quiet of Friday congregational (juma) prayers.
But the question is "How long will this excitement last?" Even if he has knowledge and vision, can the new President deliver, given the power of Congress, increasing Republican opposition, the Israel Lobby and realities of Muslim world? Will he have the political will, if required, to do what's right, whatever the political cost, or like most presidents and politicians, will he yield to the political realities and need to safeguard his career?
After only five months in office, Obama has been highly active in engaging leaders and groups around the world. However, while this raised expectations, much of our foreign policy, like our economic situation, remains in the shadow of the Bush administration's failed policies. A month after his Cairo speech, many in the Middle East and Muslim world are attempting to map out the composition, character and spirit of Obama's administration. A common question and concern is, "If Obama, personally, represents a very new and fresh chapter in American politics, why, then, do so many aspects of his administration smack of the Bush era?"
While Obama's vision and words are different from those of George W. Bush, it is still not clear to what extent, on the hot button issues, his policies will be all that different. An appointment like that of George Mitchell as special envoy to the Middle East was a welcomed surprise, but thus far seems to be the exception. The absence of prominent Middle East and human rights experts and Muslim professionals and, at the same time, the number of former Clinton and Bush officials like Dennis Ross, Richard Holbrook, Christopher R. Hill and Farah Pandit raise disturbing questions about how "new" Obama's "New Way Forward" is really going to be. The high profile role of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who from the moment she ran for Senator from New York reversed many of her earlier positions... on Palestine and Israel... and whose political godfather in New York is Sen. Charles Schumer, a fine legislator on many matters but uncritical supporter of Israel, is also a matter of concern."
Many were prepared to understand and accept why, given domestic political realities, candidate Obama distanced himself from Muslims, seeing it as a pragmatic political necessity. However, five months into his presidency, Barack Obama has yet to make many significant appointments of Muslim professionals. Soon, Muslims and others will reasonably be asking: "If there are seven million Muslims in America, where are they represented in the government bureaucracy, in appointments as ambassadors, and advisory roles? Obama is challenged by the absence from the new administration of Muslim experts with a fresh perspective, especially since Muslims are among the best educated groups in America. Among the very few Muslims thus far appointed is Farah Pandit, the new U.S. Representative to Muslim Communities, who has been closely associated with the Bush administration as a member of the NSC and State Department, This raises the question "Aren't there other Muslim Americans who could provide fresh ideas?"
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